Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.181672 0.212045 0.245367 0.284561 0.329320 0.378759 0.437416
2025-12-07 0.125770 0.165445 0.213711 0.276380 0.355185 0.450549 0.574191
2025-12-14 0.094511 0.136194 0.191010 0.267584 0.370856 0.504244 0.688307
2025-12-21 0.074772 0.116382 0.174787 0.261452 0.385186 0.553587 0.797747
2025-12-28 0.063502 0.105665 0.168260 0.266031 0.412457 0.620590 0.934885
2026-01-04 0.055970 0.098879 0.165837 0.275256 0.446102 0.698230 1.092465
2026-01-11 0.049195 0.091942 0.161829 0.280910 0.474084 0.769062 1.245044
2026-01-18 0.043069 0.084946 0.156509 0.283340 0.496564 0.832620 1.390835
2026-01-25 0.037634 0.078184 0.150478 0.283491 0.514762 0.890215 1.530922
2026-02-01 0.032571 0.071212 0.143023 0.280031 0.526097 0.937043 1.656546
2026-02-08 0.028176 0.064766 0.135564 0.275459 0.534640 0.979326 1.777060
2026-02-15 0.023816 0.057616 0.125750 0.265221 0.531772 1.001529 1.864740
2026-02-22 0.022648 0.057149 0.129074 0.280603 0.577572 1.112351 2.114143
2026-03-01 0.019365 0.051427 0.121028 0.272794 0.579250 1.145369 2.230168
2026-03-08 0.016507 0.046135 0.113089 0.264123 0.578156 1.172853 2.337700
2026-03-15 0.014269 0.041903 0.106815 0.258065 0.581405 1.208243 2.461622
2026-03-22 0.013050 0.040022 0.105552 0.262590 0.606432 1.286531 2.670540
2026-03-29 0.012242 0.039081 0.106340 0.271708 0.641738 1.387039 2.927962
2026-04-05 0.011305 0.037605 0.105631 0.277296 0.669934 1.475337 3.167182
2026-04-12 0.010298 0.035732 0.103670 0.279698 0.691321 1.551284 3.386677
2026-04-19 0.009297 0.033667 0.100919 0.279847 0.707599 1.617692 3.590914
2026-04-26 0.008255 0.031258 0.096916 0.276427 0.715395 1.666869 3.763094
2026-05-03 0.007295 0.028898 0.092686 0.271909 0.720151 1.709779 3.924792